Spot: SMM1# electrolytic nickel quoted at 164500-168300 yuan / ton on January 19th. Before the festival, the downstream is basically ready, the spot market turnover is light, the market purchase is rare, and the spot rising water is basically stable today. Jinchuan nickel market spot quotation rose 4000-4500 yuan / ton, and Russian nickel spot water rose 1600-1700 yuan / ton to 2202 contracts.
Nickel beans, the market spot is scarce, quotations are the supply of goods arriving next week, the average price is 1000-1200 yuan / ton, the market part of the high price quoted to 1500 yuan / ton. The market of high nickel iron was stable at 1362.5 yuan / nickel, while the price of low nickel iron was stable at 3950 yuan / ton.
Market news
(1) this month, three power towers supplied by the Tagaung Taung Nickel processing Plant in Saigon Province of Myanmar were bombed and production stopped. The people's Defense Forces of the town of Tigyaing said it blew up the tower on January 7. The iron-nickel project began in July 2008 and Myanmar's first mining company signed a 20-year contract with Chinese state-owned (CNMC), a Chinese state-owned non-ferrous metals mining company.
With an investment of US $800 million, the project is the largest nickel production base in Myanmar, with an annual output of 85000 physical tons. Every day, about 5000 tons of nickel and iron ore are transported from the Mt Tagaung mine in the town of Thabeikkyin in Mandalay to Tigyaing, which smelts nickel. It is reported that the Chinese Embassy in Rangoon has complained to the government about the explosion, but the details are not yet clear.
(2) Sherit International (Sherritt International) released production and annual production results for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2021. The report shows that the Moa joint venture produced 8533 metal tons of nickel in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 31184 metal tons in 2021 (calculated at 100%), in line with the 2021 production guidance of 3.1-32000 tons. The output of cobalt in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 953 tons, and the output in 2021 was 3526 tons, in line with the production guidance of 3300-3600 tons. The company's 2022 Moa joint venture is expected to produce between 32000 and 34000 tons of nickel and 3400 to 3700 tons of cobalt, respectively. (Sherritt International)
(3) Peng Huagang, spokesman for the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said that the central power generation enterprises will actively implement the national goal of "carbon peak carbon neutralization", increase investment in clean energy construction, and increase the proportion of clean energy installed in central enterprises. at the same time, we will continue to play the main role of coal-fired power units, rationally plan the scale of new coal-fired power installations, increase the efficient and clean renovation of existing coal-fired power units, and improve the safety and environmental protection level of coal-fired power units. Increase the construction of coal reserve base, increase the intensity of coal storage, and ensure the existence of a reasonable level of electric coal bunker.
(4) on January 18, Qingdao Zhongcheng said: the reserves of nickel held by the company have not been surveyed in detail, and the rough prospecting is as follows: BMU nickel mine: in the 20-hectare exploration area of area A, the measured nickel reserves are 3.38 million tons, with an average grade of 1.32%. In the 261ha exploration area of area B, the nickel reserves are 9.95 million tons and the average grade is 1.41%. Madani nickel mine: the exploration area is 31 hectares, and the reserves with more than 1.8 per cent nickel content are about 6.25 million tons.
Summary and prospect
(1) at the macro level, the central bank cut the MLF&OMO interest rate by 10BP, which exceeded market expectations, strengthening the policy's determination to stabilize growth. However, market expectations for the Fed to accelerate interest rate increases are still rising, and macro risk aversion is repeated. The recent low inventory support nickel prices rose sharply, overnight, driven by funds, nickel prices above the 170000 mark, but the downstream stock basically entered the end, short-term volatility may increase.
(2) fundamentals, 1) LME nickel 3-month transfer fee is at an all-time high, global nickel inventories remain de-stocked, and nickel prices are still supported; 2) ironworks output still decreased at the end of the year, superimposed steel prices rebounded, downstream pre-holiday stock demand rebounded, nickel iron prices stabilized and rebounded; 3) stainless steel spot prices stabilized and rebounded, there are still some specifications out of stock, pre-holiday stock demand recovered. Merchants mainly shipped back funds at the end of the year, and some steel mills planned to reduce production and overhaul during the Spring Festival, but more stainless steel production was put into production in the middle of the year, and follow-up attention was paid to the production of stainless steel production capacity.
Overall, the market expectations of the Fed to raise interest rates are still rising, macro risk aversion is repeated, and follow-up attention to domestic and foreign policy trends and the progress of the epidemic. At present, global nickel inventory is at an all-time low, new energy production and sales are improving, warehouse receipt low still increases the flexibility of nickel price rise, superimposed news disturbance on the supply side of Indonesia, Shanghai nickel has recently reached new highs and short-term volatility has increased, but stainless steel maintenance and production reduction is expected to remain, downstream stock is also coming to an end, and follow-up attention will be paid to inventory and demand changes. In operation, it is suggested that we should wait and see, do more callbacks, carefully chase high, pay attention to the rolling opportunities of Shanghai nickel contracts under the pattern of low warehouse receipts, and pay attention to risk control.
Focus on: downstream consumption, Indonesian ferronickel production, high matte project progress, macro news.
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